How to determine a Chance?

“Determine Chances?” You might think from first sight.
You name an incident a chance afterwards.
You might recognize a missed chance this way.

Or someone else calls an upcoming incident a chance.
Very often this is the moment to get careful and alerted.

You cannot travel the path until You became the path itself.
– Buddha

This quote was shared with me by Björn.

He stated

It is important in context of the up2U-protocol.
I just do not know why.
I can only feel importance, yet.


If You glance over to the insurance Business there is this term
“probability of occurrence”.
It originates from statistics and comes in a black or a white coat.

The black coat is something, nobody wants to carry.
The common term for this is “risk”.

The white coat is something, some people head for.
Something that should happen and often is named as “success” or just “the chance to happen”.  Positive connotation.

taijitu (Yin and Yang)


When You search for a solution placed somewhere within the limits of the Polygonal Solution Area (PSA), You need some parameters to orientate against.

The hard part is to abstract the parameters of requirements from solutions You already know.

forget about faster horses!!

You seek for something that transports (very basic function).

And then You list some limiting properties.

  • Without the need to feed and rest every 25 miles.
  • With shelter from weather
  • With lighting to be ridden in the dark
  • And so on

Or You list some steps to determine which one could not be left out without endangering occurrence of result. Jurists do that by naming a causing action that is causal for an (unwanted) result.
They call it “condition sine qua non”-formula.

If You are in the product development Business, You might do it by identifying a MVP (Minimal Viable Product).

Btw. the upper line is production which fulfills by following pre-described process steps,
while the lower line is evolutionary development addressing demands with creativity.

Whatever Your vision is, it would be best for realization to start where success is most likely.

Where is it?
Depends …

The best chance to succeed is starting with a very, very essential functionality that is framed by two properties.


You need to catch a thought?

You need something that conserves the thought and is able to carry (or contain) the thought and will be available in a reasonable timeframe reaching out to the future.


  • Function: conserving thoughts
  • Property 1: availability (up to near future)
  • Property 2: not obvious. In case of no better idea take cost-efficiency otherwise convenience or whatever matters to the vision owners.

Did You dare to shout out “take a paper and a pencil for, heaven’s sake!!”?

Well, this will create problems afterwards. Do not hurry!

If You want it lasting, go slow.

Nobody said, You must find solution on first attempt.

What will come next?
You imagined a vision on the red path up to here.

Maybe You would like to build a noting software for some reason.
Or You like to provide noting services to people disabled by blindness.
You might want to share taken note after conserving.

What is about sticky notes?
What is about sketching an image rather than writing letters?


If You want to create a real cool, innovative, lasting, breathtaking, way-opening solution, You need to abstract (not extract!) desired functionality first.

This is what Requirements Engineers do.
Or Design Thinkers.


I want to get into action. How can I achieve?

Strip away every distracting, supporting, convenient, pragmatic or known aspect from a requirement to identify the essence of what You are looking for.
This will define Your ESD (“Essential Solution Determinator”).

In additional iterations You can make this safer, convenient, pleasant, supported and whatever You need to get Your initial solution flying and “market ready”.
The additional edges of the solution are the additional solution determinators, ASD.
After confirmed (accepted) realization of the ESD all additional ASDs are realized until there is no need to add or change anything, anymore.

That’s all about the sequence and the way it works.

/applied to an example

If You head towards a mountain summit, no oxygen mask is needed for a 1000’er.
But, a fitting pair of shoes that suit the task would make the probability to succeed more likely.

And different clothes for different climate zones.
And high-energy food with low additional need to prepare for consumption.
And so on.
But these are all solving options You identify at the next step of the protocol.

For now, You want to climb (function) the summit safe (property 1) and secure (property 2).

/at the crossroads

Do not miss the most important action at this stage.
You need to align everybody to this.

Make a decision!

Who will join in climbing up the mountain?

Me not!

What does it take to get You in?

Now, You get into negotiation of conditions and properties.
Now, You get an idea whether You forgot something to name out loud or if there was anything else forgotten (see snag).
Here is the point where “constructive disagreement” makes great out of lame and mediocre.

You will end up from here with a team of aligned, willing, well informed comrades that are keen to realize their vision (climbing up a mountain).

Anybody who is not on fire here by any reason will be sorted out from the team.
It is nothing bad, nothing to worry about.
You should all embrace what happened. Regardless where Your road heads to.

You will end up in a circle of people with commitment towards a goal – seperated from all others. Auto-selection – stupid.

Maybe sad, but good for performing without any unnecessary interference on blue path.
You reduced probability of bad surprises by eliminating causes originating from people.
What remains are probabilities of bad surprises caused from the thing itself.
But that is mostly complicacy which lays before You.

Good news: complicacy can be managed.


Many people have tremendous difficulties to identify the very basic requirements to realize a vision.

Some have no idea.
Others tend to think “that’s too trivial – there must be a snag.”
No, it is not.

The magic evolves from blasting a very big thing into many small pieces and then catch them up one after the other.

It can be so simple.
By deciding for whatever You decided for, this is the only thing that could happen.

Next step will be identification of the most promising solution option You have at hand or can imagine.
But that will be another step in another post.


May all Your needs vanish into reality.
Live long and prosper.


You get access to whatever I estimate being worth to share on my twitter-channel.


  • It is said, Winston Churchill commented the US American attitude to approach with this words.
  • Worth some time of reflection: short dossier to Winston Churchill.
    And You might get a clue about circumstance of his life and condition of his heritage, today.


  • Open Space – HowTo
  • Decider and other useful stuff from the core protocols.


Life runs in circles. Some are smaller, some are bigger.
In the end, there is no end – only another beginning.

Enjoy, and share what You like. Feel free to make life great by doing so!

/invitation to resonante

I would like to ask You for three quick actions, with small effort on Your side and great benefit for all
– You, future readers and me for understanding and improving what matters most.

  • A “Like” is a nice signal of acknowledgement.
    Just click the star below to show it.
  • Feel free to forward this post to somebody who might gain benefit from it.
    You will find some tools for easy sharing below to this article.
  • Additionally, interaction is necessary to do great.
    Please, share Your thoughts by commenting (below) or contacting directly.
    Remember, a topic gets shape by questions AND constructive disagreement.

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